991
FXHW01 KWNH 040739
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
338 AM EDT MON SEP 04 2023
VALID 00Z TUE SEP 05 2023 - 00Z TUE SEP 12 2023
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REASONABLY AGREE THAT HEIGHT FALLS AND
GENERAL UPPER TROUGHING WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY WESTWARD OVER THE
STATE AND VICINITY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN A PATTERN
WITH DISRUPTED ISLAND TRADES AND LAND/SEA BREEZES, BUT BELOW
NORMAL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY. A GUIDANCE COMPOSITE
IS PREFERRED TO MITIGATE SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES CONSISTENT WITH
PREDICTABILITY. TRADES MAY BE SLOW TO RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY REACH/SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
ISLANDS IN THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AND THERE IS A GROWING
SIGNAL THIS MAY FUEL SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS, MAINLY OVER THE BIG
ISLAND. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SLOW TO RISE HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE INTO LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AND A RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SCHICHTEL
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