539
FXHW01 KWNH 080743
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 AM EDT FRI SEP 08 2023
VALID 00Z SAT SEP 09 2023 - 00Z SAT SEP 16 2023
TODAY'S GUIDANCE AGREES WELL FOR THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TRADES OF VARYING STRENGTH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TENDING TO BE LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY AS
AN UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY ALIGNED JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE EXPANDS
NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN A BIT LATE IN
THE WEEK. TRADES WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE LATE THIS WEEK AND
THEN TREND TO THE MODERATE-BRISK RANGE LATE WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES ACROSS THE
MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGE LATE NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO SOME
DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AT THAT TIME. GENERALLY EXPECT LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD/MOUNTAIN AREAS IN THIS PATTERN, THOUGH OTHER
LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK WHEN TRADES ARE
THE LIGHTEST. BY NEXT THURSDAY-FRIDAY THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
OVER THE PATH OF REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE JOVA. CURRENTLY
THE 00Z GFS CARRIES SOME OF THIS MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS WHILE
THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS IT FARTHER NORTH. THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST
HAS LOW PREDICTABILITY THAT FAR OUT IN TIME.
RAUSCH
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