817
FXHW01 KWNH 090747
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
346 AM EDT SAT SEP 09 2023
VALID 00Z SUN SEP 10 2023 - 00Z SUN SEP 17 2023
LATEST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW TRADES OF VARYING
STRENGTH THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SHOWERS FOCUSED OVER
WINDWARD/MOUNTAIN AREAS BUT OCCASIONALLY STRAYING TO OTHER
LOCALES. FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY-MID WEEK, TRADES SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDE
PACIFIC WHILE BELOW-CLIMATOLOGY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
GENERALLY FAVOR LIGHT RAINFALL TOTALS. MEANWHILE UPPER RIDGING
INITIALLY JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE WILL STRENGTHEN AND BUILD
NORTHWARD INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TRADES TO TREND LIGHTER AFTER
MIDWEEK AS A FRONT CREATES A BREAK IN THE SURFACE RIDGE. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ONE OR MORE
POCKETS OF REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE JOVA SHOULD CROSS THE
AREA FROM THE EAST IN THE THURSDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THERE MAY
ALSO BE A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH THAT REACHES NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS BY EARLY NEXT SATURDAY (00Z GFS/ECMWF) OR WITH FASTER
TIMING (00Z CMC), OVER/NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE INCREASING
MOISTURE AS WELL AS SUPPRESSION OF UPPER RIDGING BY SATURDAY MAY
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS LATE IN THE WEEK.
RAUSCH
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