647
FXHW01 KWNH 140741
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
341 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2023
VALID 00Z FRI SEP 15 2023 - 00Z FRI SEP 22 2023
GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE TRADES FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE SURFACE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH
FROM EAST TO WEST LIKELY WEAKENING/DISRUPTING THE TRADES AT TIMES.
ONE TROUGH WILL BE THE REMNANT REFLECTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
JOVA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL FOCUS OVER
WINDWARD/MOUNTAIN AREAS BUT ALSO EXTEND OVER OTHER LOCATIONS
DEPENDING ON LAND/SEA BREEZE EFFECTS. MODERATELY ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE ANOMALIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS THAN
EARLIER THIS WEEK, THOUGH GUIDANCE TRENDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS HAVE BEEN TOWARD LESS WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
AREA.
FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, TRADES SHOULD REBOUND SOMEWHAT
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MOST GUIDANCE
HAS HELD ONTO THE IDEA OF A BAND OF DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
EAST SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK BUT THE 00Z
ECMWF MAINTAINS MORE MOISTURE. MODELS/MEANS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL
THE ARRIVAL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE BY MIDWEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER INITIALLY JUST WEST OF 130W LONGITUDE
(INVEST 94E), THOUGH WITH TYPICAL SPREAD FOR SPECIFICS WHICH HAVE
LOW PREDICTABILITY THAT FAR OUT IN TIME. OVERALL EXPECT GREATER
WINDWARD SHOWER FOCUS SUNDAY ONWARD, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS TENDING
TO INCREASE AROUND MIDWEEK.
RAUSCH
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