347
FXHW01 KWNH 270648
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 AM EDT WED SEP 27 2023
VALID 00Z THU SEP 28 2023 - 00Z THU OCT 05 2023
THE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A WARM CORE HIGH SHIFTS NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF HAWAII INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH KEEPS TRADE WINDS IN
PLACE. TRADES SHOULD WEAKEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A PAIR OF UPPER
LOWS MOVE INTO THE MAIN ISLANDS FROM DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS, THE
WARM CORE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS, AND A FRONT/UPPER TROUGH
APPROACH AND SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT. THIS WILL ACT TO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14-E ARE EXPECTED TO PASS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE ARCHIPELAGO TO
PREEMPT ANY MAJOR HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT, THOUGH A MODEST UPTICK IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
APPEARS TO MOVE SOUTH OF HAWAI'I MID-NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS WILL TEND
TO FOCUS OVER THE FAVORABLE WINDWARD/MOUNTAIN AREAS BUT COULD
BECOME MORE FEISTY LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND INCREASED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.
ROTH
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