310
FXHW01 KWNH 120709
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
308 AM EDT THU OCT 12 2023
VALID 00Z FRI OCT 13 2023 - 00Z FRI OCT 20 2023
A FAVORED COMPOSITE OF REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS EASED ISLAND TRADES OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS
A SERIES OF FRONTS WORK TO NEAR/JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
BEFORE WEAKENING/STALLING. OVERALL IN THIS PATTERN, LIMITED
MOISTURE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS,
ALBEIT WITH SOME DAILY WINDWARD/MAUKA SHOWERS IN A PATTERN WITH
SEEMINGLY GOOD PREDICTABILITY.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A GROWING GUIDANCE SIGNAL THAT FLOW/SYSTEM
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE PACIFIC MID-UPPER LATITUDES INTO ABOUT A
WEEK MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING A BETTER ORGANIZED AND RAINFALL
FOCUSING FRONT TOWARD THE STATE IN ABOUT A WEEK AND LEAD FLOW
RESPONSE MAY BRING DEEPER MOISTURE UP INTO THE ISLANDS.
SCHICHTEL
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