995
FXHW01 KWNH 130741
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
341 AM EDT FRI OCT 13 2023
VALID 00Z SAT OCT 14 2023 - 00Z SAT OCT 21 2023
TODAY'S GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT TRADES SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY
LIGHT FROM THIS WEEKEND TO AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
COUPLE FRONTS DROP DOWN CLOSE TO OR INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS.
THIS WEAKER TREND FOR TRADES WOULD LEAD TO INCREASED LAND/SEA
BREEZE INFLUENCE ON SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO
THE NORTH OF THE SECOND (LATE WEEK) FRONT SHOULD HELP TRADE FLOW
TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT BY THURSDAY-FRIDAY, WITH A RETURN TO MORE
WINDWARD/MOUNTAIN SHOWER FOCUS. CURRENTLY THE MODELS AND MEANS
SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO FRONTS COULD ENHANCE
RAINFALL TOTALS A LITTLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS, AND
PERHAPS SLIGHTLY MORE WITH THE SECOND FRONT. AS FOR THIS LATE
WEEK MOISTURE AXIS, THE 00Z GFS/GEFS AND 12Z ECENS MEAN SAY THAT
IT MAY REACH A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST BY THE 00Z
ECMWF. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE GFS BRINGS A POCKET OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE INTO THE BIG ISLAND AND VICINITY AROUND
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY BUT THE 00Z GEFS/ECMWF AND 12Z ECENS MEAN ALL
INDICATE BELOW-CLIMATOLOGY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THAT TIME
FRAME. PREFERENCE WOULD BE FOR THE MAJORITY CLUSTER IN BOTH
CASES.
RAUSCH
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