644
FXHW01 KWNH 140734
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
333 AM EDT SAT OCT 14 2023
VALID 00Z SUN OCT 15 2023 - 00Z SUN OCT 22 2023
LATEST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY FOR THE
GENERAL FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHILE FAVORABLE TRENDS BY
PRIOR MINORITY MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR MID-LATE NEXT WEEK HAVE YIELDED
BETTER CLUSTERING FOR SPECIFICS AT THAT TIME. EXPECT A PERIOD OF
LIGHTER TRADES FROM THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
LEADING TO INCREASED LAND/SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE ON SHOWER ACTIVITY.
A BAND OF MOISTURE WITH A WEAK FRONT MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE REST
OF THE STATE SHOULD SEE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
CONSENSUS STILL SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH OF A
LATE WEEK FRONT REACHING THE STATE, LEADING TO SOME INCREASE OF
TRADES AND MORE WINDWARD/MOUNTAIN SHOWER FOCUS. AS WITH THE
WEEKEND FRONT, THE LATE WEEK FRONT SHOULD BRING AN AXIS OF
MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS. HOWEVER MOST OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT THIS LATTER FRONT/MOISTURE AXIS SHOULD
BRING SOMEWHAT HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS.
RAUSCH
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