303
FXHW01 KWNH 150801
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SUN OCT 15 2023
VALID 00Z MON OCT 16 2023 - 00Z MON OCT 23 2023
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW FAIRLY LIGHT TRADES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO MORE LAND/SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE ON SHOWERS
WHILE AT TIMES THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH BACKGROUND FLOW TO
PROVIDE SOME WINDWARD FOCUS OVER SOME LOCATIONS. A LINGERING BAND
OF MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL A LITTLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
ISLANDS EARLY THIS WEEK BEFORE IT DEPARTS. ANOTHER FRONT IS STILL
ON TRACK TO APPROACH THE ISLANDS AFTER MIDWEEK, BUT GUIDANCE HAS
DIVERGED ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL REACH. THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF
MEAN PUSH THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY'S
CONSENSUS WHILE THE 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN NOW KEEP IT FARTHER NORTH.
THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE GFS/GEFS MEAN SHOWING SLIGHTLY LOWER
HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER THE AREA. ADDING IN THE UKMET/CMC, OVERALL
PREFERENCE FOR FRONTAL POSITION AND POTENTIAL AXIS OF SOMEWHAT
ENHANCED MOISTURE/RAINFALL WOULD BE BETWEEN THE CURRENT GFS/ECMWF
EXTREMES--NEAR YESTERDAY'S CONTINUITY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
OF THE FRONT MAY HELP TRADES TO REBOUND BRIEFLY LATE IN THE WEEK.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND THE GUIDANCE AGREES FAIRLY WELL UPON UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE, BRINGING A
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONT TOWARD THE REGION BY NEXT
SUNDAY. THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN THE
TRADES AGAIN AND ULTIMATELY SWITCH WINDS AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL BE WORTH MONITORING SINCE
IT WOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING
MOISTURE/RAINFALL SOON AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RAUSCH
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