889
FXHW01 KWNH 190744
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
344 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2023
VALID 00Z FRI OCT 20 2023 - 00Z FRI OCT 27 2023
EXPECT A BAND OF MOISTURE TO ACCOMPANY A FRONT SETTLING OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE MAIN ISLANDS LATE THIS WEEK. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL TOTALS IN SHOWERS
TENDING TO HAVE WINDWARD/MOUNTAIN FOCUS DUE TO TRADES OF AT LEAST
MODERATE STRENGTH AS SUPPORTED BY HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
FRONT. THEN THE TRADES WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AGAIN AS A STRONGER
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST, WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TODAY'S MODELS ARE MORE
AGREEABLE WITH THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IN PARTICULAR,
LATEST ECMWF TRENDS HAVE GREATLY TONED DOWN EARLIER RUNS THAT HAD
DEPICTED MUCH HEAVIER RAINFALL THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. STILL THERE
IS A GENERAL SIGNAL THAT THE FRONT COULD FOCUS ONE BAND OF
MOISTURE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE WESTERN ISLANDS TO ENHANCE RAINFALL
THERE EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHILE AN AXIS OF GREATER MOISTURE LIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN ISLANDS AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
STATE BY TUESDAY. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS THE FRONT SHOULD
STALL OVER THE ISLANDS AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE AND THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE BAND MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT WESTWARD BY NEXT THURSDAY.
EXPECT SOME INCREASE OF RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS AREA OF MOISTURE
BUT CONSENSUS THUS FAR DOES NOT INDICATE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
ACTIVITY.
RAUSCH
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