247
FXHW01 KWNH 130727
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
226 AM EST MON NOV 13 2023
VALID 00Z TUE NOV 14 2023 - 00Z TUE NOV 21 2023
THERE REMAINS GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL FORCE A WELL DEFINED
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ISLANDS TUESDAY. A FAVORED
COMPOSITE OF MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO OFFER A GOOD
FORECAST BASIS AMID GROWING FORECAST SPREAD OVER TIME FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE. THIS FRONT SHOULD FOCUS MOISTURE AND
RAIN WITH PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE IN THE WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REJUVENATE TRADES
THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK IN A PATTERN WITH DECREASING MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY. THERE THEN STILL REMAINS A STRONGER THAN AVERAGE
LONGER RANGE SIGNAL SUPPORTING THE DIGGING OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH AND LEAD COLD FRONT/DEEPENING SURFACE LOW FROM THE
NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. THIS APPROACH WOULD ACT TO
DISRUPT ISLAND ISLAND TRADES AND OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR LEAD
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP LAYERED AND MOIST SOUTHERLY INFLOW TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE STATE TO FUEL ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK'S EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SCHICHTEL
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