768
FXHW01 KWNH 140715
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
215 AM EST TUE NOV 14 2023
VALID 00Z WED NOV 15 2023 - 00Z WED NOV 22 2023
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
FORCE A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ISLANDS
TODAY AND FOCUS MOISTURE AND SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE. POST-FRONTAL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTH OF THE STATE SHOULD
REJUVENATE TRADES THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK IN A PATTERN WITH
DECREASING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THERE THEN STILL REMAINS A
STRONGER THAN AVERAGE LONGER RANGE SIGNAL SUPPORTING THE DIGGING
OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH AND LEAD COLD FRONT/DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. THIS APPROACH
WOULD ACT TO DISRUPT ISLAND ISLAND TRADES WHILE OFFERING POTENTIAL
FOR LEAD DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP LAYERED AND MOIST AND MORE SOUTHERLY
INFLOW TO SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WOULD FUEL ENHANCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATER WEEKEND INTO AN EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY. A
FAVORED COMPOSITE OF REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE OFFERS GOOD FORECAST CONTINUITY AND SEEMINGLY ABOVE
NORMAL PREDICTABILITY FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
SCHICHTEL
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