113
FXHW01 KWNH 100703
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
202 AM EST SUN DEC 10 2023
VALID 00Z MON DEC 11 2023 - 00Z MON DEC 18 2023
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
WELL NORTHEAST OF HAWAII SHOULD FAVOR NEAR MODERATE ISLAND TRADES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN A PATTERN WITH UPPER RIDGING AND LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO FOCUS OVER FAVORED WINDWARD TERRAIN. MEANWHILE,
A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE STATE WILL FORCE
AN ENHANCED SHOWER FOCUSING TRAILING FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS EARLY WEEK. THIS MOIST FRONT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE FORCED
THROUGH THE STATE MID-LATER WEEK AS ADDITIONAL AND POTENT UPPER
TROUGH/LOW ENERGY DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH/NORTH OF HAWAII FROM
THE MID-LATITUDES OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, EVENTUALLY SPAWNING A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW STORM SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND LOW WILL THEN
SETTLE TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE STATE TO PROVIDE A MULTI-DAY
PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY TRADES THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD FAVOR SHOWERS OVER FAVORED FACING TERRAIN, ALBEIT IN A
PATTERN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASING MOISTURE.
SCHICHTEL
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