806
FXHW01 KWNH 060730
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
229 AM EST SAT JAN 6 2024
VALID 00Z SUN JAN 7 2024 - 00Z SUN JAN 14 2024
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE THE QUIETER PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS, AND THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN SUBTROPICAL SURFACE HIGH. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR UPSLOPE AREAS.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HAWAII DOMAIN
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
SITUATED BETWEEN 25-30 DEGREES NORTH LATE ON SUNDAY, WITH THE GEFS
MEAN INDICATING THE LOW COMING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER
TO THE ISLANDS. THE LOW DEVELOPS FURTHER GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE
STATE, AND THIS WILL LEAVE A COL IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH A
TRAILING FRONT IN THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
RAINFALL SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE TERRAIN
FAVORED LOCATIONS. IN TERMS OF WINDS, A VEERING TOWARDS THE SOUTH
OR SSE IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES, AND THIS WILL
ALSO ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE.
HAMRICK
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