726
FXHW01 KWNH 260742
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 AM EST FRI JAN 26 2024
VALID 00Z SAT JAN 27 2024 - 00Z SAT FEB 03 2024
LATEST GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE STATE WILL LIE BETWEEN UPPER
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND A STRONG JET TO THE NORTH, WITH THE
PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE BEING A FRONT THAT REACHES THE WESTERN
ISLANDS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND THEN SETTLES NEAR THE BIG ISLAND IN
WEAKENED FORM BY LATE WEEK. EXPECT MOST SHOWERS TO BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH INITIALLY LIGHT WINDS
BECOMING FAIRLY BRISK FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE STATE
DURING NEXT WEEK WILL PROVIDE SOME RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT BUT
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ANOMALIES IN THE MODELS/MEANS ARE FAIRLY
MODEST. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD TURN WESTERLY AND THEN
STEADILY VEER TOWARD NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY BY LATE WEEK, AS HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A TRAILING FRONT BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND
EVENTUALLY SUPPORTS A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL TRADE PATTERN. ONE
GUIDANCE COMPARISON OF NOTE IS THAT THE 00Z GFS STRAYS TO THE FAST
SIDE FOR THIS SURFACE HIGH BY FRIDAY, WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/CMC AND
00Z GEFS/12Z ECENS MEANS ALL CLUSTERED WELL. THE 18Z GFS COMPARED
BETTER TO THE MAJORITY SOLUTION.
RAUSCH
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