737
FXHW01 KWNH 270746
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 AM EST SAT JAN 27 2024
VALID 00Z SUN JAN 28 2024 - 00Z SUN FEB 04 2024
TODAY'S MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OFFER BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT
AND CONTINUITY FOR THE OVERALL FORECAST THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
STILL EXPECT THE STATE TO LIE BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING TO THE SOUTH
AND A STRONG JET TO THE NORTH INTO LATE WEEK, WITH A LEADING FRONT
THAT REACHES THE WESTERN ISLANDS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND THEN
SETTLES NEAR THE BIG ISLAND IN WEAKENED FORM BY LATE WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOST SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS
BECOMING STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE LEADING FRONT
APPROACHES. THERE WILL BE SOME RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT AS THE FRONT
DRIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE STATE DURING NEXT WEEK BUT ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE ANOMALIES IN THE MODELS/MEANS CONTINUE TO BE MODEST (NO
MORE THAN ONE STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY). THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BAND SHOULD LINGER OVER/NEAR THE BIG ISLAND
INTO LATE WEEK. AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY THE WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT MAY TURN WESTERLY AND THEN STEADILY VEER TOWARD
NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY, OR TREND FAIRLY LIGHT DEPENDING UPON THE
MODEL, AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A TREND TOWARD BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY, TURNING MORE NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY ON
SATURDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD DECREASE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS
BY SATURDAY WHILE FAVORED WINDWARD LOCALES CLOSER TO THE BIG
ISLAND MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SHOWERS.
RAUSCH
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