584
FXHW01 KWNH 230730
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
229 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2024
VALID 00Z SAT FEB 24 2024 - 00Z SAT MAR 02 2024
MODELS CONTINUE TO REASONABLY AGREE THAT AN UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER TO THE NORTHWEST OF HAWAII
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SETS UP WELL
NORTH OF HAWAII. THIS COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TRADE WINDS
THAT VEER A BIT SOUTHEASTERLY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGREEABLE THAT
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW (AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT) WILL STAY WEST OF THE STATE, THOUGH
SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE MAY SNEAK INTO THE WESTERN ISLANDS. TO THE
EAST OF THE MAIN SYSTEM, A GENERALLY NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
MOISTURE FRONT LOOKS TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THIS
WEEKEND, THOUGH WITH SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY. SOME ENHANCED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. INTO NEXT WEEK, BREEZY
EASTERLY TRADES SHOULD PREVAIL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH
IS REINFORCED BY ANOTHER HIGH. AROUND AVERAGE MOISTURE IN PLACE
WILL LEAD TO WINDWARD/MAUKA SHOWERS, WITH SOME PERHAPS SPILLING
INTO LEEWARD AREAS. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
SCHICHTEL
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