086
FXHW01 KWNH 020741
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
240 AM EST SAT MAR 02 2024
VALID 00Z SUN MAR 03 2024 - 00Z SUN MAR 10 2024
MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THAT A SERIES OF
SURFACE HIGHS TRACKING TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN
BRISK TO STRONG TRADES THOUGH THE PERIOD AND PROMOTE PRIMARY
SHOWER FOCUS OVER WINDWARD/MOUNTAIN AREAS. CURRENT CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST HIGH MAY REACH NORTH OF THE AREA BY NEXT
FRIDAY-SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY LEAD TO HIGHEST TRADE WIND SPEEDS
AROUND THAT TIME. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE REGION TO HELP LIFT ENHANCED MOISTURE
INTO THE BIG ISLAND AND VICINITY AROUND SUNDAY-MONDAY, WITH SOME
HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND
DECREASED STABILITY. UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH LATE WEEK, TAKING ON A MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTATION AS IT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. THIS UPPER FEATURE ALONG WITH A SOMEWHAT
SLOWER TREND FOR SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSION OF MOISTURE (ASIDE FROM THE
GFS WHICH WAS SLOWEST 24 HOURS AGO) WILL LIKELY HELP TO MAINTAIN A
FAIRLY WET TRADE PATTERN BEYOND MIDWEEK, THOUGH WITH MAXIMUM
TOTALS THAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN DURING SUNDAY-MONDAY.
RAUSCH
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