457
FXHW01 KWNH 050749
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 AM EST TUE MAR 05 2024
VALID 00Z WED MAR 06 2024 - 00Z WED MAR 13 2024
LATEST MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS MAINTAINS BRISK TO STRONG TRADES
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD, FAVORING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN EMPHASIS
FOR SHOWERS. THE FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF ONE
SURFACE HIGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH A
SECOND ONE SETTLING TO THE NORTH POTENTIALLY LEADING TO SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS AROUND FRIDAY-SATURDAY. THIS HIGH SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN BY SUNDAY AND THEN ACCELERATE EASTWARD THEREAFTER, LEADING
TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW
LINGERING OVER THE ISLANDS ALONG WITH FLUCTUATING LEVELS OF DEEP
MOISTURE (TENDING TO BE HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON AVERAGE) WILL
COMBINE TO OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK OR SO. RAINFALL SHOULD TREND
LESS HEAVY FROM LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE WEAKENS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DECREASE
SOMEWHAT. THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNCERTAIN IN
LIGHT OF ONGOING SPREAD FOR HOW LINGERING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE MAY EVOLVE. IN VARYING WAYS LATEST GFS/CMC
RUNS AND THEIR MEANS SUGGEST AN UPPER LOW MAY EMERGE FROM THIS
WEAKNESS AND EITHER TRACK OVER THE STATE OR REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHWEST, WHILE THE ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN ARE WEAKER/MORE OPEN ALOFT.
REFLECTING TYPICAL TENDENCIES OVER RECENT DAYS, THE ECMWF/ECMWF
MEAN SHOW LOWER PWATS VERSUS THE GFS/GEFS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONTINUE TO FAVOR AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
DIFFERENCES AND SOME DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY.
RAUSCH
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