267
FXHW01 KWNH 170714
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
313 AM EDT SUN MAR 17 2024
VALID 00Z MON MAR 18 2024 - 00Z MON MAR 25 2024
THE SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL INITIALLY BE IN PLACE JUST NORTH OF
HAWAII THROUGH MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY AS A COL
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.
THE HIGH THEN REBUILDS NEAR 30 DEGREES NORTH GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE GEFS MEANS KEEPING THE HIGH
CLOSER TO THE STATE COMPARED TO THE EC MEAN. THE GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGESTS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND COL IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DEVELOPING NEXT WEEKEND OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, THE NORTHEAST FACING TERRAIN OF THE
BIG ISLAND IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PERHAPS SOME HEAVIER
RAINFALL COULD DEVELOP FROM HONOLULU TO THE BIG ISLAND BY NEXT
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASED ON THE ECMWF
GUIDANCE, BUT THE GFS IS MUCH DRIER DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD.
THE TRADES SHOULD GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO
EAST-NORTHEAST ON MOST DAYS.
HAMRICK
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