417
FXHW01 KWNH 310709
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
309 AM EDT SUN MAR 31 2024
VALID 00Z MON APR 01 2024 - 00Z MON APR 08 2024
HAWAIIAN TRADES SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE THIS WEEKEND IN A
RELATIVELY DRY WINDWARD TERRAIN SHOWER PATTERN AS AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE LOSES INFLUENCE.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ALSO GENERALLY AGREE THAT NEAR FULL LATITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING UPSTREAM WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO EARLY WEEK. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT INTO A CLOSED UPPER TROUGH AND
LOW/DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE BY TUESDAYWEDNESDAY.
MOST GUIDANCE MEANDERS THE SYSTEM THROUGH LATER WEEK WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING. A LEADING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY POOLING
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW/STALL WITH
APPROACH TOWARD THE STATE INTERUPTED INTO MID-LATER WEEK. MOISTURE
POOLING AND LEAD INFLUX OFFERS INCREASING RAIN POTENTIAL TOWARD
THE STATE AS ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF
HAWAII AND INCREASES ISLAND TRADES. THIS SOLUTION IS REASONABLY
WELL DEPICTED BY A FAVORED MODEL COMPOSITE, BOLSTERING FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.
SCHICHTEL
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