006
FXHW01 KWNH 130755
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
354 AM EDT SAT APR 13 2024
VALID 00Z SUN APR 14 2024 - 00Z SUN APR 21 2024
...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS INTO EARLY
WEEK...
AN UPPER LOW AND SURFACE SYSTEM CURRENTLY POSITIONED NORTHWEST OF
HAWAII WILL OPEN UP AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY FOR KAUAI AND OAHU, AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURGE
TO AROUND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN RECENT
HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THESE ISLANDS, FLOODING IS A CONCERN. THE FRONT
MAY STALL UPON REACHING EITHER SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND AFTER EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY WITH THE LESS
EXTREME PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. AFTER THIS, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING THROUGH THE
STATE AROUND MID-WEEK, BUT AN OVERALL GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
GUIDANCE THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD AGAIN BUILD NORTH OF
THE STATE, ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO BREEZY EASTERLY TRADES AND
SHOWERS FAVORING THE TYPICAL WINDWARD LOCATIONS LATER NEXT WEEK.
SANTORELLI
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