408
FXHW01 KWNH 090715
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
314 AM EDT THU MAY 09 2024
VALID 00Z FRI MAY 10 2024 - 00Z FRI MAY 17 2024
..A WET PATTERN EMERGING FOR HAWAII
ISLAND TRADES HAVE LESS SUPPORT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
THE WEAKENING AND SHIFT OF MID-LATITUDE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ONSET
OF AMPLE MID-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGHING/HEIGHT FALLS AND LEAD
SURFACE FRONTAL APPROACH. THIS ALSO WILL PROMPT A MORE MOIST
ISLAND TRADE RESPONSE/INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING. FORECAST SPREAD
CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES A TREND TOWARD
DEVELOPMENT OF AN AMPIFIED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER THE STATE LATE
WEEK AND WEEKEND INTO MONDAY THAT SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM AND OVERTOP UPPER RIDGING. A FAVORED COMPOSITE
OF DECENTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS BOLSTERS CONFIDENCE IN
DEVELOPMENT OF AN EMERGING WETTER PATTERN FOR THE STATE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL, WITH SOME FOCUS INTO
FAVORED TERRAIN IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A LONGER TERM GUIDANCE
TREND FOR SUBSEQUENT NEW UPSTREAM DIGGING OF AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH ENERGY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS MAY ACT TO POTENTIALLY REJUVINATE WET PATTERN SUPPORT AS
DEPENDENT ON PROXIMITY, BUT FORECAST SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IS
GREATER WITH RESPECT TO THIS SCENARIO TO MONITOR.
SCHICHTEL
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