750
FXHW01 KWNH 200754
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
353 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2024
VALID 00Z SUN JUL 21 2024 - 00Z SUN JUL 28 2024
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW SIMILAR IDEAS FOR THIS
COMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 40N LATITUDE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
INFLUENCE ON THE TRADES, DRIFTING EAST AND STRENGTHENING INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD RETURN. EXPECT
MODERATE TRADES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN TRENDING TO
BRISK/WINDY CONDITIONS MID-LATE WEEK WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER WINDS
POSSIBLE BY NEXT SATURDAY. MOISTURE AND RELATIVE TRENDS FOR
RAINFALL WILL OSCILLATE FROM THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. ONE AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SHOULD PASS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER ONE ON TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME DEBATE AMONG
SOLUTIONS OVER WHETHER SOME OF THIS MOISTURE MAY PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECENS MEAN SHOWING THIS IDEA
VERSUS THE 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN THAT HAVE QUICKER DRYING PER RECENT
CONTINUITY. AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE FOR
RESOLVING THIS DIFFERENCE. AFTER THE MOISTURE PASSES BY, GUIDANCE
AGREES UPON A PERIOD OF LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LIGHTER
RAINFALL BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
RAUSCH
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