085
FXHW01 KWNH 220751
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
350 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2024
VALID 00Z TUE JUL 23 2024 - 00Z TUE JUL 30 2024
HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE STATE NEAR
40N LATITUDE AND SLOWLY RETROGRADING THEREAFTER WILL SUPPORT
TRADES AND GENERALLY WINDWARD-FOCUSED SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD.
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
BE IN THE MID-LATE WEEK TIME FRAME, WITH A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS
ALOFT TO THE NORTH/WEST OF THE MAIN ISLANDS HELPING TO LOOSEN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT DURING THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH AN AREA
OF ENHANCED MOISTURE (LIKELY IN TWO DISTINCT POCKETS) CROSSING THE
AREA AROUND TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THIS MOISTURE MAY INCREASE
RAINFALL TOTALS SOMEWHAT. MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
SOMEWHAT SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE MOISTURE ON THURSDAY, BUT
CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERIOD OF BELOW-CLIMATOLOGY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES (WITH CORRESPONDING LIGHTER RAINFALL) FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A LITTLE MORE SPREAD FOR MOISTURE BY NEXT
MONDAY WITH NO CLEAR CLUSTERING AT THIS TIME.
RAUSCH
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