860
FXHW01 KWNH 240753
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
353 AM EDT SAT AUG 24 2024
VALID 00Z SUN AUG 25 2024 - 00Z SUN SEP 01 2024
...HEAVY RAIN AND WIND THREATS FROM T.S. HONE THIS WEEKEND WITH
UNCERTAIN EFFECTS FROM GILMA LATER NEXT WEEK...
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ISSUE ADVISORIES
FOR T.S. HONE WHICH IS STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE BIG ISLAND DURING THE WEEKEND. HONE WILL BRING THREATS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING AND HIGH WINDS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
ISLANDS AND THE BIG ISLAND IN PARTICULAR. REMAINING PORTIONS OF
THE STATE MAY SEE HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS TO A LESS
EXTREME MAGNITUDE, DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF HONE. MONITOR
THE LATEST CPHC PRODUCTS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION ON THE TRACK OF
HONE AND THE ASSOCIATED HAZARDS.
TRADES SHOULD RETURN TO MODERATE LEVELS NEXT MONDAY-WEDNESDAY,
WHILE TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE A NARROW WINDOW OF RELATIVELY LOWER
MOISTURE AND RAINFALL. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT
RAINFALL MAY REBOUND A LITTLE BY WEDNESDAY AS A BAND OF MOISTURE
ADVANCES AHEAD OF GILMA, CURRENTLY A HURRICANE BUT FORECAST TO
WEAKEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME. BY NEXT THURSDAY-FRIDAY, THERE IS
STILL SOME DIVERGENCE IN GUIDANCE FOR GILMA'S LINGERING SURFACE
REFLECTION. A SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE GFS OVER THE PAST DAY HAS
BROUGHT IT CLOSE TO THE CMC, BUT THE 00Z ECMWF STRAYS TO THE SLOW
SIDE. LATEST MACHINE LEARNING MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE FOR
TRACK/TIMING BUT AGREE ON FASTER PROGRESSION THAN THE ECMWF. EVEN
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE SURFACE DETAILS, MOST MODELS/ENSEMBLE
MEANS GENERALLY AGREE ON AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CROSSING THE
AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WHICH SHOULD YIELD HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS AT SOME LOCATIONS.
RAUSCH
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