860
FXHW01 KWNH 270755
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
354 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024
VALID 00Z SAT SEP 28 2024 - 00Z SAT OCT 05 2024
WHILE THE SHAPE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL
CHANGE OVER THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD, WITH SOME MODEL SPREAD
DEVELOPING AFTER WEDNESDAY AS WELL, THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND PROMOTE WINDWARD/MOUNTAIN-FOCUSED RAINFALL. NOTE THAT
THE DIFFERING 00Z CMC SCENARIO OF A MID-LATITUDE UPPER LOW AND
CLOSER APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK (LEADING TO
WEAKER WINDS) DOES NOT HAVE SUPPORT FROM OTHER DYNAMICAL/MACHINE
LEARNING MODELS. CONSENSUS SHOWS AN AREA OF MOISTURE PASSING
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK WITH AN UPPER IMPULSE, FOLLOWED BY A BAND
OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR AROUND SUNDAY AND THEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL TO SOME DEGREE THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK. WITH UPPER RIDGING ALSO OVER THE AREA OR NEARBY AT LEAST
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, EXPECT MOST RAINFALL TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.
RAUSCH
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