974
FXHW01 KWNH 280740
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
339 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2024
VALID 00Z SUN SEP 29 2024 - 00Z SUN OCT 06 2024
MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC SURFACE HIGHS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TRADES THROUGH THE PERIOD, PROMOTING WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN SHOWER EMPHASIS. AFTER MIDWEEK THE CMC/CMCENS MEAN
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FROM MOST OTHER GUIDANCE WITH PACIFIC FLOW
DETAILS AND WOULD WEAKEN THE TRADES. MOST MACHINE LEARNING MODELS
AND THE ECMWF AIFS MEAN SUPPORT THE GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE
MEANS IN PRINCIPLE. A RELATIVELY DRY POCKET SHOULD PASS THROUGH
DURING THE WEEKEND, WITH THE GEFS/ECENS MEANS SUGGESTING THAT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD REBOUND SOMEWHAT THEREAFTER BUT
REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS SHOW GREATER FLUCTUATION OF PWATS WITH
FINER DETAIL, AS EXPECTED. EITHER WAY, THE COMBINATION OF NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE AND UPPER RIDGING THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD
KEEP RAINFALL ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AMOUNTS COULD INCREASE A BIT
AFTER THE RIDGE GIVES WAY BUT CURRENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS FAIRLY
MODEST TOTALS LATE IN THE WEEK.
RAUSCH
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