105
FXHW01 KWNH 300758
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
358 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2024
VALID 00Z TUE OCT 01 2024 - 00Z TUE OCT 08 2024
LATEST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT TRADE
PATTERN WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDWARD/MOUNTAIN-FOCUSED SHOWERS AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FLUCTUATE IN THE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL RANGE. CONSENSUS SHOWS MODERATE TRADES THROUGH THURSDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS AROUND FRIDAY-SATURDAY AS A
FRONT TO THE NORTH WEAKENS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THEN EXPECT
TRADES TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT SUNDAY-MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH ONCE AGAIN. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS UPPER RIDGING IN
PLACE EARLY-MID WEEK AND THEN A GENERAL TREND TOWARD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT BUT WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR WHERE SMALLER-SCALE
TROUGHS/LOWS AND RIDGES MAY EXIST FROM ABOUT SATURDAY ONWARD. SO
FAR, THESE DIFFERENCES ALOFT DO NOT SEEM TO PRODUCE MEANINGFUL
DIFFERENCES IN RAINFALL FORECASTS IN THE GUIDANCE BUT CERTAIN
LOCATIONS/DEPTH OF FEATURES MAY STILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE.
PREFERENCE ALOFT REMAINS WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS UNTIL BETTER
CLUSTERING EMERGES FOR THE DETAILS.
RAUSCH
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