008
FXHW01 KWNH 210635
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
234 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2024
VALID 00Z TUE OCT 22 2024 - 00Z TUE OCT 29 2024
A SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER SCALE INVERTED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK, WITH PERHAPS A WEAKER SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING NEAR IT
ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST OF HAWAII MIDWEEK AND STAY AWAY FROM THE STATE.
GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND, THE GUIDANCE
VARIES WITH THE OVERALL SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN, WITH THE EC MEAN
INDICATING WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS,
WHEREAS THE GEFS MEAN HAS A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH BUILDING.
TRADE WIND FLOW SHOULD GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST MOST DAYS, AND
SINCE THE MAIN SURFACE HIGH AND ITS STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD BE WELL NORTH OF THE STATE, WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE MOST DAYS. THE SURFACE WINDS MAY VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION PROSPECTS, NO MAJOR RAINFALL EVENTS APPEAR LIKELY
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, WITH GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON THIS SCENARIO.
HAMRICK
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