861
FXHW01 KWNH 010741
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
341 AM EDT FRI NOV 01 2024
VALID 00Z SAT NOV 02 2024 - 00Z SAT NOV 09 2024
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS SIMILAR IDEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TRADES LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, PERHAPS WITH A GRADUAL LIGHTER TREND
WITH TIME, FAVORING WINDWARD/MOUNTAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS. WITH
TYPICAL DIFFERENCES FOR SPECIFICS, MODELS/ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
AND AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
MAY SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE BIG
ISLAND WITHIN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THEN A FRONT SHOULD
PROGRESS INTO THE MAIN ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND MIDWEEK,
FOLLOWED BY BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN
TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL LEAD
TO SOME SHIFT IN MOST FAVORABLE FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD TREND LIGHTER
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DECLINE TO
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS.
RAUSCH
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