342  
FXHW01 KWNH 020759  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
358 AM EDT SAT NOV 02 2024  
 
VALID 00Z SUN NOV 03 2024 - 00Z SUN NOV 10 2024  
 
TODAY'S MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE FAIRLY WELL UP TO ABOUT THE  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN DIVERGE FOR DETAILS AT THE SURFACE  
AND ALOFT. CONTINUE TO EXPECT MODERATE TRADES AND  
WINDWARD/MOUNTAIN SHOWER FOCUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK, SUPPORTED BY HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE  
STATE. CONSENSUS STILL SHOWS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING  
FROM THE WEST AND ENHANCED MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM THE  
EAST-SOUTHEAST COMBINING TO SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL  
AROUND NEXT MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH PARTICULAR EMPHASIS OVER THE BIG  
ISLAND. THEN A FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS CLOSE TO OR INTO THE MAIN  
ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND MIDWEEK WHILE THE SOUTHERN  
PERIPHERY OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO DROP SOUTHWARD.  
THERE ARE VARIOUS IDEAS FOR WHAT THIS UPPER ENERGY WILL DO, BUT  
THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST EXTREME IN CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW THAT  
SETTLES OVER THE MAIN ISLANDS BY NEXT SATURDAY. THIS EVOLUTION  
ALOFT LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN TRADES DUE TO SURFACE  
TROUGHING (WITH A SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH). REMAINING DYNAMICAL  
GUIDANCE SAYS THAT THIS ENERGY SHOULD BE EITHER FARTHER EAST OR  
SOUTH, WHILE THE LATEST MACHINE LEARNING MODELS FAVOR SOUTHWARD  
SUPPRESSION OF ENERGY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIDGES EASTWARD WITH AN  
AXIS JUST NORTH OF THE STATE. THE MAJORITY SCENARIO FAVORS  
CONTINUITY THAT REFLECTS ESTABLISHMENT OF BRISK NORTHEASTERLY  
WINDS AFTER MIDWEEK, PERHAPS TURNING MORE EASTERLY BY NEXT  
SATURDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD TREND DOWN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW  
CLIMATOLOGY AFTER MIDWEEK, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS LIKEWISE TRENDING  
DOWN SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.  
 
RAUSCH  
 

 
 
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