821
FXHW01 KWNH 050758
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 AM EST TUE NOV 05 2024
VALID 00Z WED NOV 06 2024 - 00Z WED NOV 13 2024
EXPECT ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH TO LINGER OVER THE
ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY, THOUGH WITH GRADUAL TEMPERING OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TOTALS. A COLD FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE AROUND
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS LATE THIS WEEK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW VARIOUS DIFFERENCES/TRENDS WITH
ELONGATING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY JUST NORTHEAST/EAST OF THE ISLANDS
THURSDAY-FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE CONSOLIDATION INTO AN UPPER
LOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN EAST AND SOUTH/WEST OF THE MAIN ISLANDS.
THIS IS EVOLUTION IS SMALL IN SCALE AND THUS HAS FAIRLY LOW
PREDICTABILITY FOR SPECIFICS. OVERALL THE DYNAMICAL AND MACHINE
LEARNING (ML) MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THIS
ENERGY LATE THIS WEEK BUT THEY STILL SUGGEST THAT THE ECMWF IS TOO
DEEP AND EASTWARD WITH ITS UPPER LOW BY SATURDAY. OVERALL THE
LATEST ML MODELS SUGGEST THE WEAK UPPER LOW MAY TRACK A TAD SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE 00Z GFS, CLOSER TO THE 00Z CMCENS MEAN. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE IN RECENT DAYS, THE ECMWF WEAKENS THE SURFACE
GRADIENT COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE BUT THIS DIFFERENCE IS NOW
SOMEWHAT LESS PRONOUNCED THAN IT HAD BEEN.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND MODERATE SOME SPEED-WISE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS OVER WINDWARD/MOUNTAIN LOCALES, WITH A RELATIVE MIN IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LATE THIS WEEK FOLLOWED BY ONE OR MORE
AREAS OF GREATER MOISTURE DEPENDING ON THE DETAILS OF THE POSSIBLE
UPPER LOW NEAR THE STATE.
RAUSCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page