039
FXHW01 KWNH 040758
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 AM EST WED DEC 04 2024
VALID 00Z THU DEC 05 2024 - 00Z THU DEC 12 2024
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES STILL REASONABLY AGREE IN SUPPORT OF ONLY
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MOISTURE IN A WEAK FLOW WITH LAND-SEA
BREEZES AND UPPER RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH MIDWEEK. MORE SOUTHERLY
RESPONDING WINDS WILL THEN ACT TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER AND TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. THE FRONT
MAY SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE STARTING THURSDAY
AND WEAKEN/STALL/RETREAT LATER WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FORECAST SPREAD INCREASES INTO LONGER
TIME FRAMES, BUT GIVEN UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL PACIFIC IN GUIDANCE, FAVOR THE APPROACH AND DIGGING
OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND WETTER FLOW SETTLING INTO AND THEN
PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE STATE LATER WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SCHICHTEL
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