872
FXHW01 KWNH 090753
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
252 AM EST MON DEC 09 2024
VALID 00Z TUE DEC 10 2024 - 00Z TUE DEC 17 2024
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE STATE EARLY-MIDWEEK,
SUPPORTING BRISK TO STRONG TRADES THAT SHOULD BE MOST WINDY AROUND
WEDNESDAY. A RAPID SUCCESSION OF FRONTS TO THE NORTH SHOULD
WEAKEN THE MEAN SURFACE RIDGE SOMEWHAT FROM LATE WEEK ONWARD,
PROMOTING A MODERATION OF WIND SPEEDS BUT STILL A CONTINUATION OF
TRADES. EXPECT THE PERSISTENT TRADE PATTERN TO SUPPORT PRIMARY
SHOWER EMPHASIS OVER WINDWARD/MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.
MEANWHILE, BY WAY OF GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARD RECENT ECMWF RUNS
THERE IS NOW MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO
FORM SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY AND THEN TRACK WESTWARD
NEAR 10N LATITUDE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK
BEFORE WEAKENING. CONSENSUS STILL SUGGESTS THIS TRACK WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE ASSOCIATED BAND OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO
THE SOUTH OF THE STATE (THOUGH A CLOSER CALL IN THE 00Z UKMET
WHICH IS A BIT NORTH OF OTHER MODELS WITH THE UPPER LOW), BUT
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST WITH WHETHER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE COULD REACH INTO THE BIG ISLAND TO INCREASE THE
WINDWARD-FOCUSED RAINFALL PRIMARILY DURING THURSDAY-FRIDAY.
ECMWF/ECENS RUNS STILL BRING SOME INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND OVER
THE PAST DAY THE GEFS MEAN HAS PARTIALLY TRENDED TO THAT IDEA,
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE MOISTURE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. MACHINE
MODELS ARE SPLIT IN THIS REGARD. A COMPROMISE LEANING SOMEWHAT
TOWARD THE ECMWF/ECENS MEAN SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN RECENT TRENDS
IN THEIR DIRECTION FOR THE UPPER LOW.
RAUSCH
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