924
FXHW01 KWNH 100750
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
250 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2024
VALID 00Z WED DEC 11 2024 - 00Z WED DEC 18 2024
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN ISLANDS INTO MIDWEEK, LEADING TO BRISK
OR STRONG TRADES WITH THE MOST WINDY CONDITIONS DURING
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. THE MEAN SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FROM LATE
WEEK ONWARD AS MULTIPLE FRONTS PASS BY TO THE NORTH. TRADES WILL
MODERATE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND APPEAR LIKELY TO TREND
TOWARD FAIRLY LIGHT SPEEDS BY NEXT MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.
THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD FAVOR PRIMARILY WINDWARD/MOUNTAIN
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS/MEANS REMAIN WELL CLUSTERED FOR THE UPPER LOW FORMING
SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY AND THEN TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG
10N LATITUDE MID-LATE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING. THE MOST PRONOUNCED
BAND OF ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL LIKELY TO TRACK SOUTH
OF THE BIG ISLAND, THOUGH RECENT GFS TRENDS TOWARD OTHER GUIDANCE
ADD CONFIDENCE TO THE IDEA THAT THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF ENHANCED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PASS THROUGH THE BIG ISLAND AND
VICINITY DURING THURSDAY-FRIDAY. THUS EXPECT TO SEE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS IN SHOWERS LATE THIS WEEK. PWATS SHOULD
DECREASE TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z ECMWF/GEFS MEAN AND 12Z ECENS MEAN
SIGNAL A POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO START INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST DURING TUESDAY OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
RAUSCH
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