721
FXHW01 KWNH 130756
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 AM EST MON JAN 13 2025
VALID 00Z TUE JAN 14 2025 - 00Z TUE JAN 21 2025
SOME AREAS OF ENHANCED RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY OVER AND
NEAR THE BIG ISLAND, WITH AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE SOUTH HELPING
TO KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. THIS UPPER
LOW SHOULD DRIFT AWAY TO THE EAST AFTER MONDAY, LEADING TO A
DECREASE IN SHOWER INTENSITY. PREVAILING MODERATE TO BRISK TRADES
EARLY-MID WEEK WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT WINDWARD/MOUNTAIN SHOWER
FOCUS, THOUGH PERHAPS WITH SOME WEAKENING AROUND TUESDAY AS A
FRONT TO THE NORTH GETS CLOSE TO THE AREA. AFTER MIDWEEK,
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE MAIN ISLANDS
THURSDAY-FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW THE HEAVIEST RAIN STAYING TO THE
NORTH BUT ONE OR MORE BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. RECENT GUIDANCE CHANGES
FOR DETAILS BEHIND THIS FRONT HAVE HELD UP FAIRLY WELL IN THE PAST
DAY, WITH A SECOND FRONT REACHING THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST, AFFECTING WIND
DETAILS BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE SECOND
FRONT SHOULD THEN SUPPORT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS GENERALLY SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE
SETTLING TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES DURING SATURDAY-MONDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, LIKELY KEEPING SHOWERS ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE.
RAUSCH
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