748
FXHW01 KWNH 180752
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 AM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
VALID 00Z SUN JAN 19 2025 - 00Z SUN JAN 26 2025
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING
MODERATE TO BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEHIND THIS LATE
WEEK FRONT SHOULD KEEP MOST SHOWERS FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
BY MID-WEEK THOUGH, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND LEADING COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH. THE LATEST CLUSTER OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS A CUT OFF LOW DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS
HAWAII, WHICH COULD BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT, GUSTY WINDS, AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLANDS MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, THE GFS (AND GEFS MEAN) HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A MUCH FASTER/FLATTER/DRIER SCENARIO. GIVEN THE BETTER
CLUSTERING TOWARDS A STRONGER SYSTEM, THAT WOULD BE THE MODEL
PREFERENCE AT THIS POINT, BUT WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
SPECIFICS.
SANTORELLI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page