062
FXHW01 KWNH 070742
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
241 AM EST FRI FEB 07 2025
VALID 00Z SAT FEB 08 2025 - 00Z SAT FEB 15 2025
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL
DAYS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH RELATIVELY STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND
WEAKER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS. MEANWHILE
CONSENSUS SHOWS A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND WITH A COMBINATION
OF WINDWARD/MOUNTAIN OR SEA BREEZE FOCUS DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
OF TRADES. GIVEN THE NUMBER OF DAYS OUT IN TIME, GUIDANCE SHOWS
BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT THAT A DEVELOPING CENTRAL PACIFIC
STORM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED BAND OF RAINFALL
CLOSE TO OR INTO THE STATE BY NEXT FRIDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AROUND THURSDAY. AS FOR THE
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY, THE LATEST MACHINE
LEARNING MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT AN INTERMEDIATE PROGRESSION PER
AN AVERAGE OF THE 00Z GEFS MEAN AND ECMWF/CMC, VERSUS THE SLOW 00Z
GFS AND FAST 12Z ECENS MEAN.
RAUSCH
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