928
FXHW01 KWNH 080740
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
240 AM EST SAT FEB 08 2025
VALID 00Z SUN FEB 09 2025 - 00Z SUN FEB 16 2025
LATEST GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SIMILAR THEME FOR THE PATTERN
EVOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STATE WILL SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTED BY THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS SHOULD RANGE
FROM SOMEWHAT STRONGER EASTERLIES NEAR THE BIG ISLAND TO WEAKER
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS. UPPER RIDGING AND
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL TEND TO YIELD
FAIRLY SCATTERED AND LIGHT SHOWERS, WITH FOCUS DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF BACKGROUND FLOW.
CONSENSUS STILL SHOWS A CENTRAL PACIFIC STORM PUSHING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA AFTER MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL LIKELY TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF IT BY THURSDAY, WITH THE FRONT REACHING
CLOSE TO OR INTO THE WESTERN ISLANDS BY FRIDAY-SATURDAY. THE
RELATIVE POSITIONING OF GUIDANCE FOR FRONTAL PLACEMENT HAS
REMAINED SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO, WITH THE 00Z GFS SLOWEST
(STALLING NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN ISLANDS) AND THE 12Z ECENS MEAN
FASTEST (EVENTUALLY REACHING INTO THE EASTERN ISLANDS). LATEST
MACHINE LEARNING MODELS GENERALLY CONTINUE TO RECOMMEND AN
INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD BE A COMPROMISE AMONG THE GEFS
MEAN AND ECMWF/CMC. EXPECT SOME INCREASE OF RAINFALL WITH THIS
FRONT, THOUGH GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO RESOLVE THE
DETAILS MORE CLEARLY.
RAUSCH
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