018
FXHW01 KWNH 090747
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 AM EST SUN FEB 09 2025
VALID 00Z MON FEB 10 2025 - 00Z MON FEB 17 2025
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT AND AGREEABLE FOR THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES, SUPPORTED
BY THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE.
WINDS SHOULD RANGE FROM SOMEWHAT STRONGER EASTERLIES NEAR THE BIG
ISLAND TO WEAKER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS.
UPPER RIDGING AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS ON THE SCATTERED AND LIGHT SIDE, WHILE
WINDWARD VERSUS SEA BREEZE FOCUS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF
BACKGROUND FLOW.
CONSENSUS MAINTAINS THE IDEA OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST BY THURSDAY-FRIDAY, TURNING WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE BIT ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SPREAD FOR THE
FRONT AS IT REACHES THE MAIN ISLANDS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AXIS. THE 00Z
ECMWF AND GEFS MEAN ALONG WITH THE 12Z ECENS MEAN ARE ALL FAIRLY
CLOSE IN DEPICTING THE BAND OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SETTLING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES BY TO THE NORTH AND FRESHENING THE TRADES. THE FRONT AND
ITS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ENHANCE RAINFALL SOMEWHAT, THOUGH
GUIDANCE SIGNALS SO FAR DO NOT POINT TO ORGANIZED HEAVY ACTIVITY.
DURING SUNDAY MOST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN/LIFT
NORTHWARD AS ANOTHER FRONT COMES INTO THE PICTURE FROM THE WEST.
RAUSCH
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