894
FXHW01 KWNH 100755
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 AM EST MON FEB 10 2025
VALID 00Z TUE FEB 11 2025 - 00Z TUE FEB 18 2025
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES INTO MIDWEEK. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY RANGE FROM EASTERLIES NEAR THE BIG ISLAND TO WEAKER
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS. UPPER RIDGING AND
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL LIKELY KEEP
SHOWERS FAIRLY LIGHT AND SCATTERED, WHILE THE STRENGTH OF
BACKGROUND FLOW WILL DETERMINE WINDWARD VERSUS SEA BREEZE FOCUS.
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A COLD FRONT NEARING THE STATE FROM THE WEST
DURING THURSDAY-FRIDAY, TURNING WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY. OVER THE
PAST DAY THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE CLOSER
TOGETHER WITH RESPECT TO HOW THE FRONT AND ITS MOISTURE BAND
LIKELY STALLS NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, BY WAY OF THE GFS ADJUSTING A LITTLE EASTWARD AND OTHER
GUIDANCE NUDGING BACK TO THE WEST. THIS FRONT MAY ENHANCE
RAINFALL SOMEWHAT OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS BEFORE
DISSIPATING/LIFTING NORTHWARD. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FRONT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY (WITH MACHINE LEARNING MODELS LEANING TOWARD
THE ECMWF CLUSTER VERSUS THE WEAKER GFS/GEFS MEAN AS OF EARLY
SATURDAY) WILL SUPPORT A BRIEF RETURN OF TRADES.
THERE IS BETTER THAN USUAL AGREEMENT AMONG DYNAMICAL AND ML MODELS
THAT ANOTHER FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE MAIN ISLANDS BY NEXT
MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST LEADING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PULL UP AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE
INCOMING FRONT'S MOISTURE, WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY-MONDAY.
RAUSCH
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