689
FXHW01 KWNH 111343
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
843 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2025
VALID 00Z WED 12 FEB 2025 - 00Z WED 19 FEB 2025
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES INTO MIDWEEK, WITH EASTERLIES NEAR
THE BIG ISLAND AND WEAKER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN
ISLANDS. UPPER RIDGING AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY SHOWERS MOSTLY LIGHT AND
SCATTERED, WHILE THE STRENGTH OF BACKGROUND FLOW WILL DETERMINE
WINDWARD VERSUS SEA BREEZE FOCUS. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SHOW WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WITH THIS FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE BAND STALLING OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS BY
FRIDAY. THUS THAT PART OF THE STATE MAY SEE SOMEWHAT MORE
RAINFALL FOR A TIME. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE/LIFT
NORTHWARD BY SATURDAY WHILE TRADES BRIEFLY REBOUND A BIT AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. LATEST GFS RUNS HAVE BECOME
BETTER DEFINED WITH THIS HIGH PER THE PRIOR ECMWF CLUSTER.
THE DYNAMICAL AND MACHINE LEARNING MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE RATHER
WELL FOR THE NEXT FRONT LIKELY TO REACH THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE ARE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES WITH THE SPECIFICS, BUT
THERE IS STILL A GENERAL SIGNAL FOR ONE AREA OF ENHANCED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO LIFT UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE
FRONT ITSELF WILL HAVE ITS OWN BAND OF MOISTURE. THUS THE
SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD SHOULD STILL OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVIER RAINFALL AT SOME LOCATIONS. IT WILL TAKE ADDITIONAL TIME
TO RESOLVE THE SPECIFICS THOUGH. CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS FRONT
STALLING AND DISSIPATING OVER THE ISLANDS BY TUESDAY WITH TRADES
LIKELY RETURNING AT THAT TIME.
RAUSCH
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