350
FXHW01 KWNH 130744
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
244 AM EST THU FEB 13 2025
VALID 00Z FRI FEB 14 2025 - 00Z FRI FEB 21 2025
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST DAY
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR GENERAL FORECAST OF A COUPLE FRONTS
AFFECTING PARTS OF THE STATE LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO MORE STABLE TRADES NEXT TUESDAY-THURSDAY.
THERE ARE SOME MODEST DAY-TO-DAY REFINEMENTS THOUGH. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT THAT SHOULD
REACH NEAR OR INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS BY FRIDAY AND STALL,
BRINGING A BRIEF INCREASE OF RAINFALL TO THAT PART OF THE STATE.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE/LIFT NORTHWARD BY SATURDAY WHILE TRADES
BRIEFLY REBOUND A BIT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH. THE NEXT FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST MAY BRUSH THE BIG
ISLAND AROUND SATURDAY TO PROMOTE SOME ADDED RAINFALL THERE, AND
THEN REACH THE WESTERN ISLANDS BY SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT'S OWN
MOISTURE BAND ARRIVING BY SUNDAY-MONDAY. THOSE TWO DAYS WILL OFFER
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS FRONT
DISSIPATING AFTER MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
HELPS TO ESTABLISH MODERATE TRADES FOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY. ABOVE
AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECLINE AND
REACH NEAR CLIMATOLOGY BY NEXT THURSDAY, THOUGH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSING OVER THE AREA INTO MIDWEEK MAY STILL ENHANCE SHOWER
ACTIVITY A BIT.
RAUSCH
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