862
FXHW01 KWNH 131954
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 PM EST THU FEB 13 2025
VALID 00Z FRI 14 FEB 2025 - 00Z FRI 21 FEB 2025
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST DAY WITH
RESPECT TO THEIR GENERAL FORECAST OF A COUPLE FRONTS AFFECTING
PARTS OF THE STATE LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN TO MORE STABLE TRADES NEXT TUESDAY-THURSDAY. THERE ARE
SOME MODEST DAY-TO-DAY REFINEMENTS THOUGH. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS
ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT THAT SHOULD REACH NEAR OR
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS BY FRIDAY AND STALL, BRINGING A
BRIEF INCREASE OF RAINFALL TO THAT PART OF THE STATE. THE FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE/LIFT NORTHWARD BY SATURDAY WHILE TRADES BRIEFLY
REBOUND A BIT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. THE
NEXT FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST MAY BRUSH THE BIG ISLAND
AROUND SATURDAY TO PROMOTE SOME ADDED RAINFALL THERE, AND THEN
REACH THE WESTERN ISLANDS BY SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT'S OWN MOISTURE
BAND ARRIVING BY SUNDAY-MONDAY. THOSE TWO DAYS WILL OFFER GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE STATE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS FRONT DISSIPATING
AFTER MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST HELPS TO
ESTABLISH MODERATE TRADES FOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECLINE AND REACH NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY BY NEXT THURSDAY, THOUGH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING
OVER THE AREA INTO MIDWEEK MAY STILL ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY A
BIT.
RAUSCH
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