309
FXHW01 KWNH 140758
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2025
VALID 00Z SAT FEB 15 2025 - 00Z SAT FEB 22 2025
GUIDANCE STILL GENERALLY AGRESS THAT A LEAD FRONT BY THE
NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS WILL STALL AND FOCUS A BRIEF INCREASE OF
RAINFALL IN THE SHORT TERM THERE. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE/LIFT
NORTHWARD BY SATURDAY WHILE TRADES BRIEFLY REBOUND A BIT AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. THE NEXT FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST MAY BRUSH THE BIG ISLAND AROUND SATURDAY TO PROMOTE SOME
ADDED RAINFALL THERE, AND THEN REACH THE WESTERN ISLANDS BY SUNDAY
WITH THE FRONT'S OWN MOISTURE BAND ARRIVING BY SUNDAY-MONDAY.
THOSE TWO DAYS WILL OFFER GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS FRONT SLOLWY DISSIPATING AFTER MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE MAY HELP TO ESTABLISH
MODERATE TRADES FOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY BEFORE POSSIBLE DISRUPTION
WITH YET ANOTHER FRONTAL APPRAOCH FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO NEXT
FRIDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECLINE AND REACH NEAR CLIMATOLOGY BY NEXT THURSDAY, THOUGH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING OVER THE AREA INTO MIDWEEK MAY STILL
ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY A BIT.
SCHICHTEL
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