088
FXHW01 KWNH 210742
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2025
VALID 00Z SAT 22 MAR 2025 - 00Z SAT 29 MAR 2025
GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE TO BRISK TRADES WITH WINDWARD SHOWER
FOCUS LATE THIS WEEK AND THEN A STEADY WEAKENING OF TRADES DURING
THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES OF MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MOSTLY LIGHT
ACTIVITY, WITH A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE SEA BREEZE FOCUS BY SUNDAY
AS THE WINDS TREND LIGHTER. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO OR NEAR
THE MAIN ISLANDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
FRONTAL WAVES SHOULD PRODUCE AN AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS AROUND TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MOST OTHER
DYNAMICAL AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS AXIS OF
ENHANCED RAIN SHOULD ALIGN SOMEWHAT FARTHER NORTHWEST THAN
FORECAST BY THE 00Z GFS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE TRADES RETURNING BY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING IN EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY FASHION FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK, FAVORING ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINDWARD SHOWERS.
AN UPPER RIDGE THAT BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE WEEK
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE
RANGE.
RAUSCH
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