937   
FXHW01 KWNH 230754  
PMDHI   
  
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
354 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2025  
  
VALID 00Z MON 24 MAR 2025 - 00Z MON 31 MAR 2025  
  
TODAY'S GUIDANCE MAINTAINS GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY THROUGH  
MOST OF THIS WEEK. TRADES WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT SUNDAY-MONDAY AS AN  
APPROACHING FRONT ULTIMATELY STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE MAIN   
ISLANDS. CONSENSUS MAINTAINS THE RECENT THEME OF FRONTAL WAVINESS  
GENERATING AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL A WAYS NORTHWEST/NORTH OF   
THE MAIN ISLANDS EARLY-MID WEEK, WHILE TRADES REBOUND SOMEWHAT   
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD IN EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY FASHION. THIS   
PATTERN SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF WINDWARD SHOWERS, THOUGH LIKELY   
WITH FAIRLY LIGHT TOTALS AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM   
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK.  
  
GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN MORE SPREAD AND VARIABILITY WITH THE FORECAST  
FOR THIS WEEKEND. LATEST GFS/GEFS RUNS HAVE AT LEAST ADJUSTED  
THEIR PREVIOUSLY OVER-AMPLIFIED EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH  
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN EASTERLY TRADES DURING THE WEEKEND. MACHINE  
LEARNING MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT THE GFS/GEFS MAY STILL BE  
TOO WEAK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS THOUGH. BY SUNDAY,  
DIFFERENCES WITH EVOLUTION OF A SYSTEM WELL TO THE WEST OR  
NORTHWEST AFFECT THE ORIENTATION OF ISLAND WINDS. ML MODELS DIFFER  
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES BETWEEN THE MORE  
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 00Z ECMWF/CMC OR EASTERLY IN THE GFS. THE  
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT PERSISTENCE OF THE EASTERLY TO  
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, WHICH APPEARS THE MOST REASONABLE APPROACH  
UNTIL A MORE DOMINANT ALTERNATIVE CLUSTER ARISES.  
  
RAUSCH  
  
  
 
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