080
FXHW01 KWNH 240748
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
348 AM EDT MON MAR 24 2025
VALID 00Z TUE 25 MAR 2025 - 00Z TUE 01 APR 2025
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A FRONT STALLING JUST NORTH THE
MAIN ISLANDS EARLY THIS WEEK, LEADING TO FAIRLY WEAK WINDS
INITIALLY. TRADES SHOULD PICK UP SOME FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY ONWARD WHILE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. THE
AVERAGE OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BACKGROUND FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME WINDWARD FOCUS FOR SHOWERS, BUT AT
TIMES IT COULD BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE.
THE LATE WEEK INTO EARLY WEEKEND TIME FRAME SHOULD SEE THE
LIGHTEST RAINFALL AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN RECENT DAYS, THE GFS/GEFS ARE
WEAKER WITH THIS RIDGE THAN THE MAJORITY OF OTHER SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING MACHINE LEARNING MODELS. BY LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
CONSENSUS SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM WELL TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE STATE.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE AXIS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY EDGE
INTO THE WESTERN ISLANDS BY NEXT MONDAY BUT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
SHOULD REMAIN WELL WESTWARD.
RAUSCH
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