192
FXHW01 KWNH 250740
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
340 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
VALID 00Z WED 26 MAR 2025 - 00Z WED 02 APR 2025
AS AN INITIAL STALLED FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN ISLANDS LIFTS BACK
TO THE NORTH, EXPECT MULTIPLE DAYS OF EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY TRADES
THAT SHOULD EXTEND INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE WEEKEND. TODAY'S
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT BACKGROUND FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME WINDWARD FOCUS FOR SHOWERS, BUT AT
TIMES IT COULD BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE.
CONTINUITY LOOKS GOOD FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO EARLY WEEKEND TIME
FRAME PROVIDING THE LIGHTEST RAINFALL AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THE GFS/GEFS ARE STILL A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THIS RIDGE THAN THE MAJORITY CLUSTER BUT HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY TRENDING STRONGER. FROM AROUND LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK THE LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND TREND A
LITTLE STRONGER AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM WELL TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE MAIN ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY BUT SOME SPREAD
DEVELOPS FOR HOW CLOSE THIS AXIS REACHES. LATEST MACHINE LEARNING
MODELS SUPPORT A SLOWER PROGRESSION MORE LIKE RECENT GFS RUNS
VERSUS THE FARTHER EAST 00Z ECMWF/CMC AND 12Z ECENS MEAN.
RAUSCH
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